Growth forecast: commercial buildings, offices, retail and logistics

About this report

This page summarizes the report scope, its sector context, and the key points worth reviewing before purchase or a custom request.

Published on June 11, 2026
Updated on June 11, 2026

Sector Construction and Infrastructure
Sub-sector Commercial and Non-Residential Buildings

Detailed scope

Prospects for commercial and non-residential buildings must be assessed by use case, location and asset quality. Corporate office strategies, the transformation of physical retail, hotel recovery, logistics demand, energy constraints and the cost of capital are reshaping construction volumes. A forecasting approach helps identify segments able to grow, those requiring major renovation and those where vacancy or margin risk remains high.

The favorable scenario is based on renewed investment in prime non-residential assets, logistics buildings close to consumer markets, well-positioned hotels and modernized public facilities. In this scenario, growth comes less from gross volume than from demand for buildings that are more efficient, flexible and compliant with environmental standards. Players should secure land, permits, material costs and specialized contractors before tenders accelerate.

The central scenario is one of selective growth. Secondary offices and weak retail assets remain under pressure, while logistics, energy renovation, mixed-use assets and selected hotel projects capture a larger share of investment. Indicators to monitor include vacancy rates by location, pre-leasing levels, headline and effective rents, permit timelines, technical costs and developers' ability to adapt building uses.

The downside scenario combines a high cost of capital, weaker investment, rising construction costs, persistent office vacancy and cautious retail tenants. Protection strategies include phasing projects, strengthening pre-leasing, favoring convertible assets, limiting speculative development and integrating energy constraints earlier. The most forecast-sensitive risks relate to commercialization timelines, cost overruns, carbon standards, labor availability and asset liquidity.

Growth in commercial and non-residential buildings will be uneven. The strongest opportunities will be found in logistics assets, energy renovations, mixed-use buildings and non-residential projects that respond to clearly identified demand. Winning players will be those able to arbitrate quickly between new construction, renovation, conversion and risk phasing.

Additional editorial summary

This report provides a growth forecast for commercial and non-residential buildings by analyzing demand trajectories, permits, delivered floor area, vacancy rates, rents, construction costs, interest rates, environmental standards and developer investments. It compares favorable, central and downside scenarios to help decision-makers prioritize prime offices, resilient retail, hotels, logistics, public facilities, renovation and mixed-use projects while anticipating cost, vacancy, financing and commercialization risks.